U.S. Census figures show that Texas ranks among the fastest-growing states in the U.S. It grew by roughly 8 million people between 2000 and 2020, and estimates say it’s grown by at least another 2 million since.
Fort Worth is a prime example of this, with a population that just reached 1 million, making it emblematic of the boom that’s happening across the state.
But despite that, Texas school districts, including Fort Worth, are seeing enrollment drop. Districts that for years were considered fast growing are being forced to accept a new reality and make difficult decisions to remain financially solvent.
Experts say some of that enrollment decline is due to the COVID pandemic. But it’s not the only factor. There’s also the overall decline in the number of births in the U.S., something that could indicate an inflection point for Texas public schools, which receive the bulk of their funding based on average daily attendance.
In a conversation with the Star-Telegram, a spokesperson for the Texas Education Agency pointed to the Plano school district as an example of something the agency is seeing statewide: a once-growing district that has seen its enrollment numbers fall.
In June 2024, Plano announced the closure of two elementary schools and two middle schools, blaming declining enrollment.
According to a demographic report published by the district in 2022, enrollment began declining in 2019-20, when the district lost approximately 500 students. The next year, enrollment fell by more than 2,400, and the district lost another 780 students in 2021-22.
District leaders told NBC 5 in 2023 that they didn’t see the “bounce back” in attendance they had anticipated after pandemic-related restrictions were lifted, but other numbers point to a larger trend.
According to the district’s 2022 demographic report, Plano’s total population grew by nearly 12% from 2010 to 2020, but its under-18 population fell by more than 6%.
That, perhaps, isn’t an anomaly if you look at statistics published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Across the country, the fertility rate — the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime — reached an all-time low in 2023 of approximately 1.6, and it’s expected to decline further over the next decade. The replacement rate — the number of births per woman needed to maintain a steady population — is 2.1.
According to a Pew research study, the drop in births can be traced to factors like Americans delaying marriage and starting families later in life, more women pursuing higher education and economic uncertainty.
In 2014, the CDC said, there were approximately 71 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 in Texas, with nearly 400,000 total births that year. In 2022, there were just under 62 births per 1,000 women, and total births had fallen by 10,000.
To illustrate the dramatic change nationwide, in 2014, Utah led the country with 80 births per 1,000 women. In 2022, South Dakota led with 66.5.
This is something the TEA said it is paying special attention to, and it’s something we’ve seen firsthand with schools in Tarrant County.
Over the past five years, the number of graduating seniors in the Keller school district has remained relatively flat, said a district spokesperson, but incoming kindergarten enrollment fell from 2,235 students in 2021-22 to 1,784 in 2024-25.
During that same time span, total enrollment in Keller fell from 34,813 to 32,042, according to a TEA report.
A district spokesperson and others attribute this decline to a couple of factors, one being that the north Fort Worth/Keller area that comprises the school district is largely built out, meaning there’s little room left for residential growth.
At the same time, fewer babies are being born in the district. Some have speculated that’s due to a lack of affordable housing for young families coupled with an aging population.
On the west side of the Keller school district, the average home value is around $370,000. On the east side, it’s nearly $600,000. According to 2020 U.S. Census figures, approximately 46% of people living in the district are over the age of 40.
Whether you blame high housing costs, an older demographic or a lower overall fertility rate, the result is still the same. According to a January financial report, the Keller school district’s general fund lost $35 million between 2021 and 2023, and Keller is making cuts to address an anticipated $9.4 million budget deficit for the 2025-26 school year.
Keller got here, an auditor said at a January school board meeting, in part by making “unrealistic” assumptions about enrollment growth.
In a report released last fall, the Fort Worth school district showed a 15% enrollment decline since 2019-20. By 2028-29, enrollment is expected to decline another 8%, the same as the decline in overall births in the district since 2014. As births and enrollment have dipped, so has funding and the use of resources.
In 2024-25, Fort Worth schools operated at about 75% of capacity. The district has a list of 18 campuses being considered for closure or consolidation owing to a $17 million budget shortfall this year, which came on the heels of a $45 million shortfall in 2023-24. In the district’s 2024-25 budget book, it lists declining enrollment as one of the key causes of the budget deficit.
The Texas Education Agency said the issue is widespread across the state, though certainly not across the board. From 2022-23 to 2023-24, statewide public school enrollment actually rose by 0.2%, but that’s nothing compared to the growth Texas schools had seen over previous decades.
Five years ago, the TEA said, the average Texas district was fast growing. Today, the average district is flat — neither growing nor shrinking — and a number, like Fort Worth and Keller, are in the declining stage.
But being a declining district isn’t in itself a bad thing. A TEA analysis, for example, showed that declining districts can have higher teacher quality. Fast-growing districts are forced into hiring sprees, where teacher quantity takes priority over quality in some cases. When enrollment is declining, a school district can be more choosy when it comes to hiring and retaining teachers.
Between the 2018-19 and 2022-23 school years, Fort Worth’s teacher headcount fell from 5,778 to 4,927, a percentage drop that almost mirrors the enrollment decline.
In 2018-2019, Fort Worth teachers had an average of 10.9 years of experience. In 2022-23, they had an average of 11.6 years of experience. The percentage of teachers with advanced degrees also rose from 30.1% to 30.8%.
The TEA says it’s critical that formerly growing districts recognize when they’ve entered the flat or declining stage and pivot accordingly. This doesn’t appear to have happened in Keller.
In 2019-2020, Keller employed 2,412 teachers and reported $415 million in expenditures. In 2022-2023, as enrollment declined, teacher headcount had grown to 2,459 and expenditures had risen to $546 million.
Those numbers seemingly support the opinion of the auditor who accused the district’s past leadership of not adjusting to enrollment and funding realities.
Declining births is a real concern for school districts like Keller, as is the prospect of more families considering private education after the passage of Texas Senate Bill 2, which will provide public money for private school tuition and home school costs.
It’s hard to forecast just how big an issue this will be in the years to come. Is the drop in births just a blip, and will the fertility rate rebound soon? What impact will immigration policies have on population and school enrollment numbers?
These are questions to which no one has concrete answers. But the TEA said enrollment decline doesn’t have to spell doom for school districts. In some cases, revenue could actually increase even as the number of students decreases. It depends on the district and how each one manages its finances. It also depends on what the Texas Legislature does about school funding.
Since 2019, Texas school districts have received $6,160 per pupil in state funds. In April, the Texas House passed a bill that would raise that to $6,555 per student. While that $395 increase was welcome, local districts, like Keller, said the basic per-pupil allotment needs to increase by closer to $1,300 to offset inflation-related funding loss.
A substitute school finance bill is making its way through the Senate.
“As far as our response to declines in enrollment,” said Keller district spokesperson Bryce Nieman, “we continue to look for ways to engage our community to highlight how, despite increasing alternatives, public education provides the best growth opportunities for most students, and Keller ISD remains a destination for excellence when it comes to providing exceptional educational experiences.”
This story was originally published May 15, 2025 at 2:01 PM.
Matt Adams
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
817-390-7014
Matt Adams is a news reporter covering Fort Worth, Tarrant County and surrounding areas. He previously wrote about aviation and travel and enjoys a good weekend road trip. Matt joined the Star-Telegram in January 2025.
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